Voters in Northern Ireland went to the polls for the second time in less than a year last Thursday (BBC). The result left certainties about Ulster in ashes.
For the first time in the history of ever, the combined unionist (pro-UK) parties failed to win a majority in the assembly. While the nationalist (pro-“South” Ireland) parties still had fewer seats overall that the unionists themselves (11 seats were won by “other” parties), Sinn Fein (the largest nationalist party) came one seat shy of matching the Democratic Unionist Party (the largest unionist party). Quite a few pundits put forth quite a few reasons for the unionist fall-off. I’ll look at each in turn.
First, Brexit. While yours truly was very happy to see Leave win the referendum on 23 June, Ulster voters went the other way. Given that all three pro-Leave parties (DUP, Traditional Unionist Voice, and the People Before Profit Alliance) fell in first preference vote share, hard feelings clearly still exist. However, the effect could be seen across the Protestant/Unionist-Catholic/Nationalist divide, and does not explain the increase in nationalist share of the vote (and nationalist share of Assembly seats) overall. For that, there are other reasons.
First among them is the DUP corruption scandal. DUP leader (and NI First Minister Arlene Foster) has been caught up in an investigation into the Renewable Heat Incentive, which ended up spending far more in taxpayer money than expected due to a lack of cost control. Under the rules of the Northern Irish Assembly, the largest unionist and the largest nationalist party must be in government together. So when Sinn Fein demanded Foster step aside as a requirement of their staying in government, Foster’s refusal ensured a new election was necessary. It also gave Ulster voters the opportunity to weigh in on RHI, and they were clearly not happy.
Next up, we have Foster herself. The DUP leader was on the ropes, and she knew it. So she threw up the specter of a Sinn Fein First Minister (the party with the most Assembly members picks the First Minister) to scare unionist voters into staying with her party. She was, however, so polarizing as to turn out nationalist voters against her. Sinn Fein reached the rewards of the anger.
Finally, although least known outside of the UK but probably of greater importance in the selection than anything else, was the Ulster Unionist Party’s strategy. Northern Ireland’s Assembly members are elected in a complex multi-member, multi-district system known as Single Transferable Vote. In this system, you rank all the candidates from first to worst, and your second and third preferences impact the election even after your first choice is either eliminated or elected. Normally, this allows nationalists and unionists to vote for multiple parties at a time, without any concerns about votes being “wasted”.
In this election, however, the leader of the smaller and older Ulster Unionist Party attempted to build a coalition across the divide, and recommended his followers to put the nationalist Social Democratic and Labor Party ahead of the DUP in preferences. Not only did that certainly have an effect and lowering the DUP result, it also helped the SDLP, to the point where they scored above the UUP in the simile members despite falling below them in first preference votes.
Naturally, Sinn Fein is ecstatic at the result. Unionists, understandably, are less sanguine.
In the short-term, there is still the question of whether a government will actually be formed – as Foster still refuses to step aside. Northern Ireland could see a third election, or even a return to direct rule from London for a time, despite nobody claiming to want that.
In the long run, unionism needs a serious rethink. Already, there is talk of consolidation between DUP and UUP. Personally, I think it would be best for the unionists if they attempted to cross the sectarian divide and reach out to Catholic voters. The assumption that all Catholics prefer Dublin to London is a foolhardy, but the DUP especially has a history to deep in sectarianism to take advantage.
Either a new unionist party will be necessary, or perhaps the UUP could take the plunge and consider reaching out to Catholic voters. After the party’s worst result in its near-century-long existence, they don’t really have much else to lose.