Is Northam vs. Perriello really tied?

The media blitz was on a few weeks back when the Wason Center released its poll showing a 26%-26% tie between the Democrat candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor Ralph Northam and former Congressman Tom Perriello.  Most of the media bought into that.

I didn’t.

Let’s get the obvious problems out of the way first.

1.  It’s a poll of registered voters, which is worth less than the so-called “warm bucket of spit” in an off-year gubernatorial election, much less a primary.
2. The demography is all over the map.  A third of the poll’s respondents went to Graduate School or higher.  Two thirds have at least a Bachelor’s degree. Over a third of those polled are under the age of 45.   These aren’t what I usually see in other polls.
3. How are these people called voters?  20% said they didn’t vote in the Presidential election last year.  (Plus 2% can’t remember whom they voted for).  26% didn’t vote in either Presidential primary.  So, suddenly they’re voters in a primary for Governor in 2017?  Hardly.

So what does that mean for the Northam-Perriello tie?

Everything.

Northam beats Perriello among voters age 45+.  He also leads among Clinton voters.  He’s also winning in both Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

Basically, Northam is winning among groups we know will show up for a Democratic Primary.

Where are the votes Perriello counts on for this supposed tie?  A 19-point lead among voters under 45.  A 9-point lead among Bernie Sanders voters (Hillary beat Sanders by almost 30 points in Virginia, for those keeping score).   A 20-point lead in Southwest Virginia.

If I was cynical, I’d almost think this poll was designed to get a close result.  But the Quinnipiac poll of registered voters showed the race 19-19.

With the election a quick two months away, and everyone convinced the race is close, I’ll join the popcorn munching and watch the Democrats attack each other.

I just don’t think that Perriello is as close as he’d like people to think he is, and unless he starts doing better with reliable Democratic primary voters, he’s swimming upstream trying to make the primary voter pool into something it hasn’t been.