As the UK general election campaign enters its first weekend, the Conservatives take the spotlight once again – only this time not for good reasons.
In Scotland, Ruth Davidson – full disclosure: one of my favorite UK politicians – reverted to form as Unionist Number One to launch her election campaign, “We Said No; We Meant It” banner and all (Scotsman – note that May 4th is a reference to local council elections to be held). To be fair, the Tories’ best election results in 25 years have come as a result of Davidson’s Out-Unionist-Everyone tactics, but the 55% of 2014 can also vote Labour (if the party wasn’t so busy trying to win over Yes voters in Glascow) or LibDem (who are far more serious about it even if they have a smaller base at the moment). Meanwhile, the 38% who voted Leave – and who in theory the Tories would have to themselves as UKIP has long been anemic in Scotland – are given a more indirect message (Davidson has said Scotland is better staying in a Leaving UK, but hasn’t quite enbraced Brexit with Prime Minister May’s enthusiasm). While 38% of the vote may not sound like much, it should be noted that the last time the Conservatives scored that high in Scotland (1970), neither Davidson nor yours truly had been born.
That said, it was likely May herself who caused the larger problem for her party this week. She repeatedly refused to say if the Conservatives would bring back their 2015 manifesto promise not to enact major tax increases. Almost immediately, the editors at the Telegraph sounded the alarm, and Tory sources began playing the that’s-not-what-she-really-didn’t-say game (BBC). It’s an open secret that the Chancellor (Philip Hammond) would prefer the flexibility on taxes. That doesn’t make him right.
To be fair, campaigning with a lead this large has its problems: balancing realism in the manifesto (as nearly all assume the Tories will keep governing afterwards) with maximizing votes. However, there is a difference between what Westminster insiders consider “realism” and the actual thing (see the June 23 referendum). Moreover, sitting on a big lead assumes the lead is there – and given the UK’s polling issues, I’m not sure I’d hang my hat on that, unless I’m ready to see it eaten (Telegraph).