Political analysis can be a tricky thing. Sometimes opinions vary, and that’s what makes for interesting debate.
But sometimes an analysis is just so completely wrongheaded and devoid of even the most remote bits of logic and common sense that it needs to be called out loudly.
This is from an interview on WVTF, a National Public Radio affiliate (surprise!) where noted Professor of Political Science and International Affairs Stephen Farnsworth of the University of Mary Washington chimed in on the Virginia election scene.
The story went to the exhaustive research of counting candidates for the House of Delegates this year and came up with 81 Republicans and 115 Democrats.
Dr. Farnsworth blamed that on President Trump.
“It has really discouraged some Republicans, particularly in districts that might be more competitive, from signing up for another term or choosing to run.”
Are you serious?
Is the good doctor actually saying that because so few Republican incumbents are being primaried by fellow Republicans, that is some indication of discouragement over Trump?
Dear Professor, if there was Trump discouragement in the air, there would be MORE Republican incumbents being challenged, not fewer. The fact that so many Republican incumbents are unopposed does not indicate discouragement, unhappiness or party unrest.
That’s even more pronounced when one considers Republicans hold 66 House seats compared to the Democrats’ 34. That’s why fewer Republicans are “choosing to run”, Dr. Farnsworth. Because we already hold 66 seats!
The fact that so few Republican primaries are being held is a sign of Republican strength, not weakness. When a Republican delegate in a Republican district is unopposed for a Republican nomination, that is a good sign for the Republican Party.
In fact, it is the Democrats who have the turmoil. Only 8 nomination contests are going on for House Republicans. Democrats have 24 fights in their ranks right now.
In fact, if you look at some of the fights on the Democrat side, you’ll see a “Bernie Sanders” supporter against a “Hillary Clinton” supporter. It’s certainly true in the Democrat nomination battle for Governor. But that would require actual analysis, Mr. Professor.
I do realize that I’m probably giving Dr. Farnsworth more publicity than NPR can give him by highlighting his faulty interpretation. That’s a risk I have to take.
When political analysis from academia is so diametrically opposite of reality, someone needs to call it out.
Republicans aren’t discouraged, Dr. Farnsworth. We’re winning.