Today is Local Election Day in the United Kingdom: the traditional rotation of local council seats in England (more on that later), all local council seats in Wales and in Scotland, and 6 new English regional mayors (as in, the offices are new). It was to be the big British election of 2017 until the Prime Minister made the general election call for 8 June.
Regarding the general election, the Liberal Democrats (Independent) and the Greens (BBC) have both called for a second referendum on the EU, after a deal is struck (if there is one). A rejection of the deal means the 2016 referendum decision is reversed and the UK stays in the EU, although how that would work given Article 50 (which has no provision for reversal) is unclear. It’s conceivable the EU could demand the UK adopt the euro and lose its previous opt-outs – which would suit the Lib Dems just fine.
That said, neither party is expected to make a splash in the local votes. The main focus will be the fate of the Labour Party.
It is widely assumed Labour will lose council seats in Scotland to both the SNP and the Conservatives. Indeed, it’s presumed that Labour will no longer have control (i.e., a majority of seats) in any Scotland local council, although it should be noted that there are only 32 councils up there. The big test will be Glascow – a former Labour heartland that has been heavily SNP ever since it voted for independence in 2014.
Labour could take hits in Wales, too, although they managed to avoid that fate in Welsh Assembly elections last year. Of course, that was before Wales surprised me, possibly itself, and certainly everyone else by voting Leave last June. Conservatives will likely gain here, whether it’s not enough to justify polling that has the Tories ahead in Wales is – actually, nothing justifies polling that has the Tories ahead in Wales, so never mind.
The Conservatives can expect gains from Labour in England, too, but even under someone not named Jeremy Corbyn, Labour would have a tough time holding seats won at the height of David Cameron’s unpopularity and right-wing voters bleeding to UKIP.
If there is to be any real predictor of the June election, it will be the West Midlands Mayor election. Of the other five, two are in strong Conservative areas, while the other three are safe Labour zone. Labour should be the favorites in West Midlands, too, but Birmingham – the largest city in the WM electorate – went surprisingly, if narrowly, for Leave last year, and the Conservative candidate is holding his own. If West Midlands goes “blue”, it’s a very good sign for the Prime Minister’s prospects next month.