In just over four weeks, I’ll cast my first Democratic primary vote in over 20 years (and given that my 1994 US Senate primary vote was for Virgil Goode, one could argue this is my first primary vote for a Democrat in my life). The transition from an economic conservative Republican to a conservative Democrat (and, according to some, to the conservative Democrat) is now complete with this post, in which I explain why I’ll be voting for Ralph Northam in June – and, I hope, in November.
First, Northam is closer to my views on the issues – albeit not by much – than Tom Perriello. To be fair, the two Democrats running for Governor don’t disagree on much, and Perriello’s plan to make Virginia Low Income Individual Tax Credit refundable is an excellent reform idea. However, the ex-Congressman cancels that out by funding it with an increase in income taxes – a genuinely awful idea that reduces our competitive advantage with Maryland and actually gives North Carolina a competitive advantage over us. The only other major difference between the two is on the Atlantic Coast Pipeline, to which Northam is more amenable. That tips the balance on issues.
In additional to that, Northam would be a better general election candidate in my view. Just so we’re clear, I am not saying Tom Perriello can’t win, because I don’t think that’s the case. However, in an election like 2017, in which a Republican-controlled Washington is sure to drive turnout from an upset Democratic base, Northam’s persona and electoral history is more likely to win over center and right-of-center voters looking to make a statement against Trump without risking a “progressive” leftward lurch. One can argue my assumption on that; the numbers are something else. Perriello has won only one race, coming in just two points ahead of Barack Obama in a Congressional district in western Virginia. Northam, by contrast, has won twice in one of the more dynamic regions of the state (Hampton Roads), while also being the only candidate to win over 50% of the vote statewide since 2012
Another item to consider, Northam is more likely to depolarize Richmond and get items accomplished. The McAuliffe record is a depressing reminder of what happens when a Washington-experienced politico ends up in the Governor’s mansion. Unlike both Perriello and the likely Republican nominee (Ed Gillespie), Northam has a decade of experience in Richmond – and in the knife-edge balanced State Senate, no less. This gives him a far greater feel for how the state capital operates.
Finally (and this is more important to me than to others), Northam is more likely to move my new-ish party in the direction I think it needs to go. It’s no secret that the Democratic Party is searching for a strategy to defeat Donald Trump’s re-election. Sadly, much of the talk is focused on winning back “white working class” defectors to Trump in the Rust Belt – despite (1) history showing that new converts to a political party are far less likely to revert back and (2) the strong showing of GOP Senate candidates in the states Trump carried (which reveals these voters to be Republican converts rather than one-and-done Trump voters). Democrats would have far better luck, in my view, if they went after the Gary Johnson ’16 vote (greater than Trump’s margin of victory in five states: PA, WI, MI, FL, and AZ) and other traditional Republicans more likely to be put off by Trump. Perriello’s history in office and his campaign reveals a preference for the “white working class” strategy. Northam appears more open to wooing center-right voters uncomfortable with Trump.
For these reasons, I consider Ralph Northam the better choice, and will vote accordingly in June. That said, given that the Republican candidates have decided to out-Trump and to out-Confederate each other in a desperate attempt to hide their past support for of tax increases, I have found it far easier to proclaim the following than I ever imagined: I will vote for the Democratic nominee for Governor, no matter who it is.