Over the last 24 hours, two major arguments have arisen – that among the politicians, and that among the pollsters. The Prime Minister is largely trying to avoid both of them and stick to discussing Brexit.
For the first argument, most of the opposition parties spent their time at a leaders’ debate snapping at each other – and Ms. May, who refused to show (Telegraph). In 2015, David Cameron greatly benefited from the “opposition debate” by not being there, but unlike Cameron, May was actually invited to this one. Moreover, she sent Amber Rudd (Home Secretary) in her place. Odds are May won’t get whatever benefit Cameron did, although we can’t be sure given that polls barely moved for much of the 2015 – and were proven to be wrong on Election Night.
Speaking of the polls, this time they’re avoiding herding. Instead, they are openly acknowledging differences – a far better situation for voters, pundits, and amateurs like me. I mentioned this difference earlier in the week, but with YouGov now insisting the Conservative lead is down to three points (meaning a hung parliament would be likely), it’s getting more attention over there.
In the end, it appears to come down to turnout modeling, as Ashley Kirk and Patrick Scott (Telegraph) note:
YouGov’s latest poll says the Conservative’s 42 per cent is just three points higher than Labour’s 39 per cent – a lead that indicates we’re in hung Parliament territory.
This has been eagerly shared by the Labour camp and has driven the narrative that the race is tightening in the election.
But YouGov’s figures stand out in stark contrast with some other polling companies, and the way in which pollsters calculate turnout – who’s actually going to turn out and vote – may be part of the reason why.
Survation, which is claiming a six-point Tory lead, is estimating that turnout among under 24s will be around 80 per cent – significantly higher than in previous elections.
YouGov’s latest poll implies a turnout among this group of 51 per cent, which is still higher than 2015.
This group of young voters has enthusiastically backed the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn, but it is also a group who didn’t vote in great numbers in 2015.
For reference, the last time the entire UK voting public turned out at 80% levels to vote was 1951. So clearly, Survation has some explaining to do.
Meanwhile…
ICM makes adjustments to its polls based on the turnout at previous elections for age and class.
Its most recent poll suggested that 18-24 turnout would be around 40 per cent – part of the reason why they have Labour at a much lower level than YouGov.
The two pollsters themselves later acknowledged their turnout assumption differences are what drive ICM showing a Conservative landslide and YouGov showing a hung parliament. As it happens, I think they’re both wrong: the idea that Corbyn can drive up youth turnout to record levels all by himself is foolish in my view, but so is the notion that the EU referendum (where turnout rose to 72%) will have no effect on who votes this time. Thus, I’m holding to my prediction of last week: a larger, but not large, Tory majority.
Who else is staying on course? None other than Ms. May herself, who is in Teeside today and held forth once more on Brexit (Telegraph), the issue that led her to call the election in the first place and, as I have argued, the best issue for the Conservatives in this, the last week of the campaign.