…the Democrats are data mining for 2018 vs. Garrett in VA-05 — that’s all.
Naturally, the editors here at The Jeffersoniads are enthusiastic about Peake’s chances in tomorrow’s special election. “Not a blowout but a solid victory” is what we are being promised… so there it is.
SEN-22 is a seat that Trump carried by 14 points. Hypothetically, this should be enough to carry the district. Efforts from out-of-state actors who have promoted the candidacy of “independent conservative” Joe Hines are drawing last-minute concerns of a third-party candidate derailment, the theory being that if you can run someone to the right of the Republican and get 10% while keeping the GOP nominee under 50%? The Democrat can win the seat with a plurality…
Of course, there is no such threat here. Hines will be lucky to get 5% in this special election, as Peake supporters have been very vocal about the demonstrable links between Democratic support and Hines’ candidacy.
At some level, the Democrats know this. The negative campaigning that has been carried out thus far? Has mostly been third party, and mostly been on Hines’ behalf. What’s more, this candidacy possibly puts Washington in a position to make a more effective run in a year or so, when an early announcement and a hard push in a swing district could shift attention away from Comstock (invincible after a 14-point overvote vs. Trump) in VA-10 and a solid return from Taylor in VA-02.
…but SEN-22 in all likelihood is out of reach for the Democrats this year, despite the opportunity to swing numbers in the Virginia Senate. If the chance were realistic? You’d be seeing a lot more effort to boost Washington’s name ID right now… and it’s just not happening.
Yet if one steps back from the SEN-22 campaign, you see a far larger picture. With Albemarle and Charlottesville reliably blue and Nelson tipping that way? Who is to say that a popular former sheriff from Fluvanna with ties to Buckingham couldn’t be the key to a 2018 mid-term swing where the top of the ticket (Trump) isn’t there to carry the water?
Given Hurt’s 2012 performance at 55% and Garrett’s 2016 performance at 58% it is a Hail Mary pass for the Democrats to be sure… but as Perriello demonstrated in 2008 with Obama at the top of the ticket, not impossible. Even Hurt’s 2010 victory was only managed with 9,000 votes separating Hurt and Perriello in an incredible year for Republicans nationwide… with Hurt of course managing a 61% romp in the off-year in 2014 against half-hearted opposition (and redistricting to help).
The calculus is simple: Is VA-05 is a better bet for the Democrats than continuing to throw good money after bad against Comstock or Taylor… or at the very least, spread Republican resources thinner in a state Republicans lost by 212,000 votes? Or is it better to keep hammering away at VA-10 and VA-02 in the hopes something gives? That’s the question the Dems are looking to answer in SEN-22.
Either way, Peake should do very well on Tuesday, January 10th. The better Peake does, the less likely a strong Democratic candidate will emerge to challenge Garrett before 2020’s redistricting radically changes the map.