The votes from local elections in England, Scotland, and Wales have been counted, and with less than five weeks to go until the next general election, the results are being treated like tea leaves. Even I’m using them to update my initial predictions (although I will likely update them further as we get closer to 8 June).
In England, it was a great day for the Conservatives at the expense of everyone else. UKIP’s vote cratered, as they fell from 144 local councillors to a solitary 1. Labor lost 140 seats themselves. Even the Liberal Democrats – who were supposed to be making a comeback – dropped more than two dozen seats. The only gainers were the Tories, who added more than 300 to their total.
Still, I think the bigger deal was the “metro mayor” elections in six English regions. Four were expected to go Labour’s way when the local campaign began in earnest, but only Liverpool and Greater Manchester did. The Conservatives won as expected in Cambridgeshire/Peterborough and the “West of England”, but they also scored a narrow upset in the West Midlands, and pulled a shocker in Tees Valley. The latter is in the North East of England, arguably Labour’s best region in 2015…but also one of the most decidedly pro-Leave regions of 2016. If Ben Houchen’s result is any indication of how his fellow Conservatives running for Westminster will do up there, we could see a lot more Tory wins next month.
In Wales, by contrast, Plaid Cymru joined the Conservatives in positive territory, but for the most part Labour held on. My skepticism about a blue wave hitting Wales seems to have been the right call so far. I expect Tory gains in Wales, but the idea that they’d win a majority of Welsh MPs – or even top Labor MPs there – remains in the I’ll-believe-it-when-I-see-it category.
In Scotland, by contrast, the Conservatives blew apart expectations. They made gains off Labour, to be sure – to the point where the Tories are now second behind the SNP in councillors, not Labour. However, the Conservatives also drew Nationalist blood. The blue surge was everywhere in Scotland, and it was enough to stop the SNP from taking control in Glascow and push the SNP into a minority position in Dundee. In Edinburgh, the Conservatives knocked Labour into third – a bad omen for the one Labour MP left in Scotland (Ian Murray – Edinburgh South).
What it means for the general election: hard to say. It’s been 30 years since a local election was held ahead of a general election, and in that case, Margaret Thatcher’s Tories did a good bit better in June than they had in May. If polling is any indication, May will repeat that.
If…
As for my prediction, I’m driving down the Lib Dem figure based upon the results (and updating Northern Ireland). That leads to….
Conservative: 363 (+33 from 2015), Majority of 76
Labour: 189 (-43)
Scottish National Party: 55 (-1)
Liberal Democrat: 20 (+12)
Democratic Unionist Party (NI, pro-London): 7 (-1)
Sinn Fein (NI, pro-Dublin): 5 (+1)
Plaid Cymru (Welsh nationalists): 3 (No Change)
SDLP (NI, soft pro-Dublin): 3 (NC)
Alliance (NI, neutral): 1 (+1)
Ulster Unionist Party (NI, pro-London): 1 (-1)
Green: 1 (NC)
Independent (NI, pro-London): 1 (NC)
Speaker: 1 (NC)
UKIP: 0 (-1)
As I said, that’s still subject to change (and I expect it will be changed again before the big day).